Network systematic analysis of hydrocarbon extraction and refinement efficiency: A data-driven paradigm for optimizing financial and operational dynamics

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive network analysis of oil production terminals and liquid types in 2024, examining production trends, correlations, disruptions, and predictive modeling. The analysis categorizes terminals based on crude oil and condensate output, highlighting key production hubs such as IMA, AGBAMI, AKPO, and ANAMBRA BASIN. Monthly production trends reveal an uneven distribution, with a few terminals contributing the majority of output, while others remain marginal. A correlation matrix and heatmap visualization indicate a stable production cycle with minor fluctuations, suggesting the influence of operational and external factors. The disruption impact analysis reveals a compliance rate of 98.97% with OPEC's quota, despite occasional fluctuations due to maintenance, pipeline vandalism, and regulatory interventions. Additionally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model predicts an upward production trajectory, forecasting an increase from 197.85 million barrels in December 2024 to 1.24 billion barrels by 2031. However, the model may overestimate growth due to the absence of external economic indicators. The findings underscore the importance of strategic production planning, infrastructure optimization, and policy interventions to ensure sustainable oil output.